James Bessen
Will industries use new information technologies to eliminate jobs? Sometimes productivity-enhancing technology increases industry employment instead. In manufacturing, jobs grew along with productivity for a century or more; only later did productivity gains bring declining employment. What changed? Markets became saturated.
Research Summary: Why Isn’t Automation Creating Unemployment?
Mark Lemley and Timothy Simcoe
This paper explores what happens when standard-essential patents (SEPs) go to court. The authors found that, contrary to their expectations, SEPs are more likely to be held valid than non-SEP patents, but they are significantly less likely to be infringed. In other words, SEPs, once in court, do not seem to be all that essential. One cause, the authors found, comes from the assertion of SEP patent rights by so-called patent trolls, which has implications in policy debates over both SEPs and patent trolls.
James Bessen
Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies will automate many jobs, but the effect on employment is not obvious. Although technology has sharply reduced jobs in manufacturing in recent decades, for over a century before that, employment grew, even in industries experiencing rapid technological change. This paper presents a simple model of the change in demand that accurately predicts the rise and fall of employment in the textile, steel and automotive industries, and will be useful for exploring how AI is likely to affect jobs over the next 10 or 20 years.
Michael J. Meurer
Although the paradigmatic defendant in a patent infringement lawsuit is a vertically integrated manufacturer, modern supply chains now include many different businesses, each of which must contemplate the risk of patent infringement when entering into the contracts to form those chains. This paper provides some guidance on best practices for terms of indemnification agreements that address both efficient risk management and effective bargaining against a patent-plaintiff.
Susan Helper, Raphael Martins, Robert Seamans
This paper offers several predictions about how Industry 4.0 – the coordinated use of robots, sensors, AI, and other digitally-enabled technologies in manufacturing – will affect which firms and occupations capture value in manufacturing. Using in-depth interviews with manufacturers that are part of the automotive value chain, the authors find that value migration within firms likely affects whether and how value migration occurs across firms.
James Bessen
Since the 1980s, US industries have become increasingly dominated by large firms across almost all sectors. Why? One possibility is that large firms have become dominant because antitrust authorities have allowed too many mergers and acquisitions. James Bessen explores another possibility: that leading firms have been better at harnessing information technology (IT) for competitive advantage, allowing them to grow faster.
Research Summary: Why are large firms becoming more dominant?
Emek Basker and Timothy Simcoe
This paper presents an in-depth quantitative analysis of the diffusion and impacts of the Universal Product Code (UPC). The authors find evidence of two-sided network effects in the diffusion process, and that employment and trademark registrations increase following UPC adoption by manufacturers or wholesalers. The findings suggest that barcodes, scanning, and related technologies helped stimulate variety-enhancing product innovation and encourage the growth of international retail supply chains.
David Autor with David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, Gary Pisano, and Pian Shu.
Manufacturing is the locus of U.S. innovation, accounting for more than three quarters of U.S. corporate patents. The rise of import competition from China has represented a major competitive shock to the sector, which in theory could benefit or stifle innovation. In this paper we empirically examine how rising import competition from China has affected U.S. innovation.
Ian Hathaway with Mark Muro
The gig economy, as reflected by nonemployer firms, is significant and growing fast. Overall, there has been a clear surge in nonemployer firms’ — a measure of contractor and freelance individuals — business activity in the last decade, which almost certainly reflects, at least in part, the rise of online platforms.