The Two-Minute Drill: The Broncos are rectifying a failed gamble
By Brendan Nordstrom
I’m not usually a gambler: I have a dreadful tell at the Hold ‘Em table, luck rarely falls in my favor and, simply put, I don’t have the money for it. However, last summer after a long day of broadcasting for the summer baseball team I interned at, my friends and I decided to head over to a Casino north of Traverse City, Michigan. I decided to put aside a simple $20 for the night – I know, high stakes. I was riding high for a bit, up nearly double, until it all came crashing down. I found myself down $5 and was determined to at least break even. With the casino closing in just a few minutes, I rushed to the roulette table, pouring money in until I won back my $20. At the crack of midnight, I landed on black and got out of the red.
Last offseason, the Denver Broncos took one of the biggest gambles the NFL has seen. Russell Wilson, a top-level talent behind center but showing signs of regression in his 30s, was acquired by the Broncos in exchange for three players and five draft picks.
Many were quick to praise Denver’s gutsy decision, and they were just as quick to retract it once the season began. Wilson underperformed to say the least. His 16 touchdowns and 84.4 quarterback rating are the lowest marks of his 11-year career, missing the Pro Bowl for the first time since 2016. The offense he commandeered was dead last in points scored per game at a measly 16.9, and his only response was “Let’s Ride” or doing dynamic stretches on planes.
His passing game wasn’t completely futile – over 3,500 yards and the 17th-best air attack – but far worse than Denver expected for the price they paid. On top of everything, the Broncos ended their 2022 campaign with the same amount of wins as they did with Teddy Bridgewater, four more draft picks and over $200 million.
It’s unfair to pin all the blame on Wilson when arguably the NFL’s worst head coach, Nathaniel Hackett, was on the headset. It was evident Hackett wasn’t going to be the one to take Denver out of mediocrity from Week 1. Hackett was fired after 15 games, not even completing his first season.
Denver isn’t completely hopeless and has the pieces to become a contender. The defense is the hallmark of this team. It was so stellar that if the offense scored just 18 points in regulation every game, the Broncos would have ended their season 11-6 – good enough for the No. 5 seed in the AFC.
With such a marginal difference between a top-ten record in the league and a top-ten pick in the draft, Denver needs an established offensive strategist who can flip this offense on its head and revamp it enough to support their formidable defense.
As I found out at Turtle Creek Casino, the only way to win back lost money is to keep pouring in more money. An unhealthy strategy, absolutely, but a strategy nonetheless. The Broncos traded away their other 2023 first-round pick and a 2024 second-round pick to the New Orleans Saints for head coach Sean Payton and an additional pick, according to a tweet by Adam Schefter.
Sean Payton is on the upper echelon of NFL coaches. Taking in a 3-13 Saints team, Payton nursed them back to an NFC South title and an NFC Championship berth in his first season at the helm. Just three seasons later, New Orleans lifted the Lombardi Trophy under the bright lights of Miami. In Payton’s 15 seasons in the Big Easy, his offense ranked first in points scored six times and top ten in points scored during all but three seasons.
Whether they like it or not, the Broncos have hitched their wagon to Wilson for at least the next two years. If cut, Wilson’s dead money is over $100 million for 2023, $85 million for 2024 and nearly $50 million for 2025. Wilson may not have been the player they expected, but there’s a chance to rectify those mistakes with Payton.
Wilson hasn’t been shy about his love for Payton, going as far as to contact him directly in the hiring process. Payton coached Wilson at the Pro Bowl, with Wilson commenting, “He’s competitive as can be … and just the wizardry that you would have on field was just magnificent.”
I would be hard pressed to find someone in the NFL sphere who believes the Broncos won the Russell Wilson trade. They paid unprecedented premiums for mediocrity, and now they have no chance to build up the future, meanwhile their trade partners, the Seahawks, ended with four more wins, a playoff berth and a bright future through the draft.
Denver, realizing they were down, decided to throw even more draft picks at a solution. Not only have they mortgaged their future, but they also are mortgaging the loyalty of their fans, faith from their players and trust in the ownership group.
It’s a risk, but a necessary one. Payton, who boasts a 152-89 record, is the best option to get the best out of Wilson. This season will be a true litmus test for QB1, determining if they’re completely out of luck, or if they will turn into a true AFC West contender.
In my brief gambling experience, I was successful on my double down. My bet wasn’t nearly as important, nevertheless I applaud the Denver Broncos for trying to win back their money and their pride. But then again, I’m not usually a gambler.