Around the Horn: NLDS Predictions

(Photo courtesy of Brian Garfinkel/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

By Finley Rogan

The National League side of the bracket presents two electric series, between prestigious teams in shared regions. The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have two of the most fun fan bases in the league, and a shared dislike for each other. Meanwhile in southern California, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres will meet again in the postseason, as the Dodgers will look to avoid another disappointing October.

Philadelphia Phillies (95-67) vs New York Mets (89-73)

The Philadelphia Phillies have been one of the best teams in the MLB all year long. Their consistency throughout the season has been second to none. The Phillies were among the eight best teams in runs scored, home runs, wRC+, and BB%. The lineup is full of solid hitters, and superstar Bryce Harper always shows up in October. The Phillies rotation is solid but not great. They rank just inside or outside of the top 10 in most pitching metrics. The advantage for Philadelphia comes in their rotation. Zach Wheeler is one of the best pitchers in the major leagues. Aaron Nola is well above average and postseason weathered, and pitchers such as Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez have had breakout campaigns. The Phillies potential weaknesses are the bullpen, which is average and lacks strikeout punch, and the defense, which ranked middle of the pack in defensive runs saved. With an elite postseason environment in Philadelphia, the Phillies seem poised for another October run.

The New York Mets have some serious juice this season. The Mets were eleven games below  .500 at a point this May, and have somehow managed to reach the NLDS after Pete Alonso’s miracle home run Thursday night. Like the Phillies, the Mets have an elite offense which ranks towards the top of the MLB in most metrics. Led by superstar Francisco Lindor, New York has a deep and pesky lineup, with platoon-ready hitters and some mainstays. The Mets have an average pitching staff; however they have been able to piece together a solid rotation and bullpen. Although they rank in the middle of the MLB in earned runs, New York’s pitching staff ranks in the top five in strikeouts, which can be very beneficial in postseason situations. Overall, it has been a rollercoaster of a season for Mets fans, and they will enjoy every last twist and turn of the ride this postseason.

Although I believe the Phillies are the clear superior team, I see this series going the full five games. There is something about two teams playing in massive rowdy markets that suggests potential mayhem in this series. The Phillies, however, have recent playoff experience and success, and should execute in a business-like fashion.

The Pick: Phillies in Five 

Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64) vs San Diego Padres (93-69)

The Clear Story of the Dodgers season has been Shohei Ohtani’s record breaking campaign. Beyond Ohtani, the Dodgers still house superstars such as Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Even with these huge names, it has not been all smooth sailing for the Dodgers this season. They have one of the most injured pitching staffs in the league. The Dodgers finished outside the top 10 in most pitching metrics; however, they still posses high-powered arms like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Michael Kopech. The Dodgers lineup, as expected, is as elite as they come. Los Angeles ranks first in wRC+, second in runs scored, and third in home runs and walk rate. The lineup is deep, and possesses the power to flip any game upside down. 

The Padres are one of the league’s most intriguing teams. They have superstars such as Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., along with a burgeoning one in Jackson Merrill. San Diego’s offense is not elite like the Dodgers, but it remains a productive unit with sky-high potential. The pitching staff has been good and has improved throughout the season. The Padres made numerous acquisitions to the bullpen at the trade deadline and it has paid off. Many people believe this Padres team is built for October and that no moment will be too big. They will have the rotational advantage but will need to travel to Los Angeles for the first two games and pray that Shohei Ohtani does not go up another level in the playoffs.

This series felt more inevitable as the season went on. A huge rivalry, a smaller market taking on a giant, and two of the league’s best ballparks. What more could one want? I think this series will go five games and although I want to believe the Dodgers playoff woes will continue, Shohei Ohtani brings them an electricity that cannot be ignored.

The Pick: Dodgers in five

(All stats courtesy of Fangraphs)