Around the Horn: ALDS Predictions

(Photo Courtesy of Andy Lyons, Getty Images)

By Finley Rogan

October is in full swing, and along with it the MLB postseason. The American League has been a roller coaster all season long. The four teams left perfectly encapsulate the chaos of the league this season, and all four teams think they have a chance to represent the AL in the World Series. Both series feature a juggernaut of the season taking on a young team led by superstars. Here is how I think it will go.

Cleveland Guardians (92-69) vs Detroit Tigers (86-76)

The Tigers continued to play like the hottest team in baseball after making quick work of the Houston Astros in the American League Wild Card round. Although it may be a surprise to see Houston eliminated so early given the fact they had appeared in seven consecutive American League Championship series, it should come as no surprise it was at the hands of this Detroit team. The Tigers won 31 of their final 44 regular season games. Detroit has a slightly below-average offense which finished 17th in WAR, and 21st in wRC+. However, the Tigers go as their ace Tarik Skubal does, and he has been nothing short of otherworldly. The lanky flamethrowing lefty won the AL pitching triple crown while maintaining elite underlying metrics. Skubal will be in line to start game two and will potentially be used further along in the series, if not in game 5. It is important to note how hot Detroit has been, and although they lack an elite offensive talent, the Tigers have all the confidence in the world. Detroit also finished in the top five in defensive runs saved. Being able to trust your defense can be the difference in October.

After a magical summer, the Cleveland Guardians are back on top of the AL Central. The Guardians are good. Cleveland finished with a team wRC+ of 100 this season, which is average. However, the bats won’t be what lead the Guards to playoff success. It will be the pitching and the defense. The Guardians were the second-best defensive squad in the MLB this season as the team produced 84 defensive runs saved. Cleveland, like Detroit, finished in the top 5 of most pitching metrics. However, unlike Detroit, the Guardians lack an ace like Skubal. Cleveland makes up for it with their bullpen, where their closer Emmanuel Clase had one of the best relief pitching seasons in history. Clase pitched in 74 games, finishing with a 0.61 ERA and a 0.66 WHIP, just dominant stuff. Cleveland has other blue-chip relievers such as Cade Smith who finished with a 1.91 ERA. The Guardians have a dynamic back end of the bullpen they can feel confident in no matter the situation.

This is a fun series, presenting a rivalry that can be reborn. Detroit has been one of the stories of the season, but Nobody predicted Cleveland to finish as well as they did. Both teams will struggle to score runs throughout the series, and although I love Tarik Skubal, I love the Guardians bullpen even more, and they can pitch every game. 

The Pick: Guardians in four

New York Yankees (94-68) vs Kansas City Royals (86-76)

This could be the most favorable chance the Yankees have had in their past seven seasons when they have been perennial World Series contenders, only to not have appeared in one throughout that span. It is no secret how the Yankees got here. Aaron Judge had one of the best seasons in MLB history, and Juan Soto produced at a level that should see him become one of the highest-paid players in the league after his oncoming free agency. The questions for the Yankees come elsewhere. They finished second in wRC+ and first in home runs; the offense should show up. The Yankees pitching staff finished seventh in ERA, and fourth in strikeouts. If the Yankees can get good innings from their starting rotation and reliable appearances from only a couple of relievers, they will be very difficult to stop. Plus, Yankee Stadium will be an electric environment as long as the Yanks are in.

Kansas City continued their feel-good 2024 season, making quick work of the Baltimore Orioles in the first round of the playoffs. The Royals are led by their phenom Bobby Witt Jr. Witt will surely finish top three in AL MVP voting and will be a perennial candidate for years to come. Outside of Witt, the Royals are sub-par on the offensive side. Kansas City has a quality rotation with some fun players. There is Cole Ragans, the ace who is one of the league’s best left-handed pitchers. Then there are guys like Seth Lugo, or Alec Marsh who have revitalized their careers this season. The Royals finished top 10 in most pitching metrics, and also in defensive runs saved. Kansas City profiles similarly to Detroit, however, the star power comes from their shortstop rather than the ace.

This is a fun and improbable series between a massive market and a smaller one. It will be a pleasure to see Aaron Judge and Juan Soto going up against one of the young stars in the league. Overall, I think the Yankees should win the series. They have more power in the lineup and a 3% higher walk rate than the Royals. Those baserunners can make all the difference in the playoffs. If New York hits the way they can, they won’t need to rely on the shaky back end of their bullpen.

The Pick: Yankees in four

(All stats courtesy of Fangraphs)