The Break Out: The Steelers are 3-2. They’re also one of the NFL’s worst teams.

(Photo via Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

After barely missing the playoffs last season with an exciting rookie QB leading the helm, the Steelers were supposed to become a legitimate NFL contender. Five weeks in, they have three wins to show for almost nothing else.

By Sam Robb O’Hagan

If 67,000 Steelers fans left Acrisure Stadium content on Sunday, there was at least one man in the building that didn’t.

“There’s a lot out there, obviously, that we didn’t like,” Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said afterward. It was a charitable summation.

What there is to like — Pittsburgh is 3-2 and atop the hotly contested AFC North after a last-minute 17-10 win over their bitter rivals in Baltimore.

What there isn’t to like — just about everything else.

After five weeks, the Steelers are third-last in both total offense and total defense — the only other team in the bottom eight in both categories is the 1-4 New York Giants. The only basic, quantitative measurement where Pittsburgh is not below average is takeaways — their 11 is third-best in the league.

So, on the surface, the Steelers are a really, really bad team. Below the surface, they might be even worse.

The offense, of which any pre-season hopes of a breakout in Pittsburgh were attributed, is particularly bad. They’re 29th in expected points added per play, and in success rate (the percent of snaps that result in positive expected points added) they are last. Per EPA per dropback and EPA per run, each called pass is costing the Steelers -0.159 points, and each called run is costing them -0.197, according to rbsdm.com.

The numbers say it’s a staggeringly inefficient offense. The eye test says it’s just incompetent. 

Sophomore quarterback Kenny Pickett is notoriously antsy in the pocket. When he can’t simply point and shoot at his first read, he bails still-survivable pockets, surrendering opportunities downfield. That’s a flaw by itself, but a catastrophe when combined with his average athleticism. Pickett thinks he can create plays outside of the pocket, outrunning pass rushers and delivering accurate throws on the move, but he isn’t fast enough, big enough, or strong enough to do any of it.

It’s a combination that makes him extremely susceptible to traditional passing concepts that require him to slow down and figure out what’s happening in front of him.

And that’s all that offensive coordinator Matt Canada calls.

Canada’s passing offense is well-documented in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have run traditional, dropback passing concepts at a mind-numbing rate, avoiding tools like play-action that can simplify the offense for their struggling young passer.

Per Sports Info Solutions, the Steelers have run play-action on 10% of their plays this season, and Pickett is 32nd among quarterbacks in passing attempts out of play-action.

On Sunday against the Ravens, with a limited quarterback and a coordinator who refused to help him out, the Steelers got these results:

via NFL Next Gen Stats

Pickett’s passing chart told the entire story. Note the empty void in the middle of the field, the area between the numbers that Pickett targeted only three times. 

It was predictably symptomatic of the quarterback’s limitations and the coordinator’s misguided scheme. Pickett, thrown into the deep end without a life vest to bail him out, resorted to simple, immediate decisions, avoiding the crowded middle of the field. The end product was either a check-down or a prayer down the sidelines.

This was not a real passing offense. Deep, “50/50” balls to George Pickens are rolls of the dice. Pickens, of course, excels in these situations, and his six receptions for 130 yards and a score eventually won the game for Pittsburgh. But relying on Pickens’ contested catch ability down the sidelines will quickly become critically inefficient if it isn’t already — Pickens has still only caught 22 of his 40 targets this season.

It has been a parallel tale on defense, where the Steelers have remained afloat on the back of big plays from their biggest stars. TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith, the team’s edge rush tandem that has a combined 10 sacks, nine tackles for loss, and four forced fumbles, have delivered in the team’s biggest moments with strip-sacks of Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson late in the fourth quarter. 

They’re about the only formidable areas of this once-dominant defense remaining. Pittsburgh has surrendered 104 first downs in five games, which is eighth-most in the league, and is below-average in total yards, passing yards, and rushing yards allowed per game. 

Of course, the offense’s ineptitude has put the defense on the field an extraordinary amount, but the Steelers’ defense hasn’t been as good as they were assembled to be.

And on Sunday, despite the Ravens scoring just 10 points, they weren’t good enough either.

Right up until the catch point, Baltimore’s offense had its way. Lamar Jackson played his best game of the season — he was Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded quarterback in Week 5 — and his receivers were open throughout the game. Had those receivers avoided dropping the ball seven times, the third-most since 2017 per PFF, the Ravens could have scored almost 35 points. 

Instead, the Ravens dropped the ball, dropped it again, and dropped it some more, leaving the door open so long that eventually, the Steelers’ stars made their plays. But the inevitability of Watt, Highsmith, and Pickens doesn’t outweigh what was an inept Pittsburgh performance for almost four quarters.

A win over Baltimore will always be a famous one in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers would be better suited if this one became infamous. Their late-game heroics added a win but hid what was an even greater loss. 

This season was supposed to be the year. The year that Pickett established himself as the team’s next franchise quarterback, the year his offense finally started scaring people again, the year that, if all else failed, the defense would at least be there to pick up the pieces.

So, sure, the Steelers have three wins. But they’re winless in their greater operation, and the 67,000 fans who watched their team on Sunday better hope that the most important man in the building realizes it.