The Break Out: Chris Olave is an NFL superstar hiding in plain sight
(Photo Courtesy of NFL.com)
2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson is really, really good. His former Ohio State running mate is even better.
By Sam Robb O’Hagan
You can tell Garrett Wilson was made for this. Something about the way the second-year Jets’ receiver carries himself both on and off the field — but especially on it — just glares ‘superstar’. The reels upon reels of releases from the line of scrimmage winning immediately. The speed in the open field, then the sudden stops, then the speed again. The huge catch radius exploding out of a small, lightning-quick frame.
Wilson is a flash. And everywhere in this sport he glows — in its biggest market, in its sportsbooks, in its Fantasy Drafts, and, after feeding during his rookie year in an otherwise starving offense, Wilson glows in football’s awards ceremonies, too. He’s already the 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year. Now, as the star playmaker on one of the league’s most talked about teams, Wilson’s found a home among the contenders for 2023 Offensive Player of the Year.
Blink and you’ll miss him. But stare at his flash, and you’ll miss another sophomore receiver from Ohio State with a thousand-yard rookie season under his belt. And this one is even better.
If you’re looking, you’ll find that like Wilson, you can tell that Chris Olave was made for this, too.
The Saints’ wide receiver finished the season only 59 receiving yards behind Wilson but on 150 less routes and 23 less targets. By most advanced metrics, Olave was not just more efficient than Wilson and drastically more efficient than every offensive rookie in 2022, he was more efficient than almost everyone.
Per FiveThirtyEight’s Receiver Rankings, which “use Next Gen Stats to evaluate every route a pass catcher runs,” Olave was the seventh best receiver in the league last season. Better than Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Ja’Marr Chase. In the ‘Getting Open’ category, one of three the rankings are built upon, Olave was better than Justin Jefferson. The rankings also track yards per route run, and Olave finished ninth. That’s higher than Jaylen Waddle, the fastest man on the league’s fastest offense. The Saints’ offense, by the way: not very fast.
Olave finished with an 81 overall score from FiveThirtyEight, on 1,042 receiving yards. The only other rookie wide receiver in the six seasons of these rankings to produce 1,000 yards and finish with a top ten score was Ja’Marr Chase in 2021. Chase won Offensive Rookie of the Year with 84% of the vote and became one of the faces of the sport as a rookie. His overall FiveThirtyEight score that season? Two points lower than Olave’s.
So — why? How? How did Olave, so remarkably good in so many metrics, barely even get a sniff at an award that, logically, he should’ve ran away with? And why aren’t the masses talking about him in the same way they talk about Wilson, who boasts a near identical resume, only slightly worse? Why isn’t Olave glowing?
The Saints’ offense isn’t glowing. Olave certainly has juice (a lot of it), but the other ten on the field with him — they just don’t.
In Olave’s rookie year, it was an offense that wasn’t supposed to be good or interesting before the season and wasn’t either during it. It was an offense led by Andy Dalton. An offense on a boring team treading water in a laughably bad division. Who was supposed to care? Who was supposed to watch Olave when they could watch Wilson, doing cool things with the words NEW YORK across his chest, on a team that started 6-3 with a former second overall pick at quarterback?
There simply weren’t enough eyes on Olave to generate legitimate traction in the OROY race. One of the best rookie receivers in a long time (and there are plenty to choose from), slid right past the national radar.
And that’s a shame. A real shame, in fact, because Olave’s film is about as sweet on the eye as it gets. Wilson, famous for his flashes, has assumed a reputation for a rather erratic playstyle. Olave, though, oozes polish. And that polish separates the two on film.
Olave is an electric athlete, but he doesn’t win with athleticism as a route runner. Tight feet, timing, and manipulating leverage are the name of Olave’s game. Watch this route against Pro-Bowl cornerback Marcus Peters. No fancy stutter steps, no flailing arms, no ankles broken. Just business. And Olave finishes his business better than just about anyone else. And that is what sticks in the NFL.
But Olave gets vertical, too. His targets last season traveled an average of over 14 air yards, sixth highest in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. That’s on par with George Pickens, and higher than Christian Watson and Tyquan Thorton, two of the premier deep threats in the 2022 rookie class. Thornton, you may remember, broke the forty record at the 2022 combine. Olave is fast. Really fast.
And it’s his use of his speed that makes him such a sharp route runner — it’s easy to get corners into a full sprint with you when they know you’re that fast. All Olave has to do is run, to threaten vertically, and those tight feet and lightning quick cuts will do the rest. Opposing corners can’t account for both Olave’s speed down the field and his quickness in the intermediate. It is a deadly combination. And it is precisely Olave’s leg up over Wilson as a wide receiver.
Wilson is a phenom. An athletic marvel so athletic that he almost plays like his natural gifts are all he needs. In many cases, they are. But Wilson, at this point in his career, isn’t winning with the same technique and refinement as his former Ohio State running mate. And that’s what makes the comparison to Wilson so helpful to understanding just how good Olave already is. Wilson is the reigning runaway Offensive Rookie of the Year — a bonafide superstar in the making.
But Chris Olave is even better.