The Two-Minute Drill: Regrading QB trades

By Brendan Nordstrom

The past couple of seasons have been full of blockbuster trades, with teams mortgaging their entire future for a quarterback that may (or may not) bring them to Super Bowl contention. Now, it is time to revisit those trades and determine who won.

January 2021: Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams

Rams receive: Matthew Stafford

Lions receive: Jared Goff, 2022 1st-round pick, 2023 1st-round pick, 2021 3rd-round pick

The Detroit Lions were set to enter a new rebuild under head coach Dan Campbell, and franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford couldn’t endure a complete a teardown. Stafford, a quarterback with excellent talent and arm strength, wanted to prove his capability as a winner.

Jared Goff, the former top pick, was stellar in his first couple seasons in LA, even visiting the Super Bowl. However, he struggled down the stretch and his relationship with Sean McVay turned sour. 

The trade, in the simplest terms, was the Rams’ desire to win the Super Bowl and the Lions’ desire to set up for the future.

Last season was a storybook ending for the Rams. Their ideology of “F– them picks” led to the raising of the Vince Lombardi Trophy for the first time since 2000. 

The Lions ended the season at an abysmal 3-13-1. Goff lacked confidence to start the season but slowly improved. The 2022 season, however, changed the trade narrative.

This season, Goff is playing the best football of his career – ask him. With an arsenal of offensive weapons and creative calls from offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, Goff commandeers the fifth-best offense in the league. His individual numbers are, dare I say, Pro Bowl-worthy with 3,352 yards (eighth-best) and a QBR of 61.2 (sixth-best). Despite the narrative of being a “bridge quarterback,” Goff has become the “quarterback of the future,” as the Lions organization recommitted to him this past week.

The pot is even sweeter for the Lions, who are in the midst of the playoff chase, as we look to our reigning champs. I have talked about the Super Bowl hangover, but nobody would’ve expected the Rams’ collapse to be this bad. The injury-riddled Rams are 4-9 with their first-round pick (which belongs to the Lions) sitting in the top five. 

The Rams will always be the winners of this trade because of their name plate in Canton. However, the Lions received a strong young core: wide receiver Jameson Williams (with the Rams’ 2022 first-round pick), their QB of the future and another early first. They are set up for future, more sustained success. If they could go back in time, both of these teams would ink the deal even faster.

Mar. 8, 2022: Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos

Broncos receive: Russell Wilson, 2022 4th-round pick

Seahawks receive: Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, 2022 1st-round pick, 2023 1st-round pick, 2022 2nd-round pick, 2023 2nd-round pick, 2022 4th-round pick

The Broncos were a team with a stellar defense and quality offensive pieces, but their quarterback carousel has been a laughing stock. With 12 QBs in six years, the list is headlined by Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemian, Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater. The Broncos were willing to mortgage their future for a proven star to – finally – end this miserable sequence. They found their match: the Seattle Seahawks, giving away five draft picks and three players.

National media was quick to crown the Broncos the far-and-away winner of this trade. Then, the season happened. 

New Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett proved undeserving of the headset. This was evident in the first game of the season (against Seattle) when he elected a 64-yard field goal instead of trusting his new, shiny weapon to get five yards.

Hackett isn’t the only problem. Wilson is barely a shell of his former self. His QBR is 27th in the league, he’s thrown six interceptions and he might not even record more touchdowns than the number of bathrooms in his house. Oh, remember that stellar defense I mentioned earlier? It’s still incredible, ranking top five in least points allowed per game at just over 18, yet the Broncos find themselves at an embarrassing 3-10 as the offense can barely put up a two-touchdown performance. 

The Seahawks, however, are the rich that get richer. Quarterback Geno Smith, who backed up Wilson for three years, has been playing well above his pay grade, and far better than his former QB1. Smith’s touchdowns and QBR both rank in the top five of the league as he is heavily favored to win Comeback Player of the Year in his “Ain’t write back” tour. The Seahawks find themselves vying for the final Wild Card slots, and their draft pick from the Broncos sits second overall. On top of that, they get to bask in the shortcomings of their previous quarterback. Not a bad life.

The Broncos took a gamble and lost big. Some twisted higher power loves seeing unsuccessful signal callers at Mile High. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are not only in a solid position now, but also set up for success years down the line. Denver is currently spamming ctrl + z, while Seattle celebrates a steal of a trade.

Mar. 20, 2022: Deshaun Watson to the Cleveland Browns

Browns receive: Deshaun Watson, 2024 6th-round pick

Texans receive: 2022 1st-round pick, 2023 1st-round pick, 2024 1st-round pick, 2023 3rd-round pick, 2022 4th-round pick, 2024 4th-round pick

There is not enough data to really determine a winner on this trade; however, I am willing to crown the Texans based on both the draft and moral capital involved in this trade.

The Texans had a simple job: their quarterback, who was accused by more than two dozen women for sexual assault and sexual misconduct, wanted to leave, and they needed to find a trade partner. The quarterback has elite potential and dual-threat capabilities.

The Cleveland Browns ended up not only trading an unprecedented three first-rounders, but also offered Watson a fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract. On top of that, the Browns take on the moral burden of Watson. Despite not being indicted, the Browns are the source of ire for fans around the league and took a big hit in the publicity department. In all fairness, a reported 10 teams were interested in trading for Watson, which calls the NFL’s morality as a whole into question, but the Browns were the only one dumb enough to give up six draft picks.

The Texans aren’t treading water like the Seahawks, nor do they have exciting upside like the Lions. They have a litany of problems at a dreadful 1-11-1 record. The good news: they have a lot of draft capital to fix it.