The B-Gap: Justin Fields and the 2022 Chicago Bears

The 2022 Chicago Bears have walked through the first four weeks of the NFL season with no real outside conviction. They’re 2–2: an almost invisible win against the Houston Texans, a somber and familiar loss against the Green Bay Packers, an upset of the San Francisco 49ers that quickly became more about the weather than either team on the field, and a laid egg against one of the more uninspiring 3–1 teams in recent memory at MetLife Stadium this past Sunday. The NFL’s typical rebuild project: perfectly un-noteworthy. 

In the words of the late Dennis Green, the 2022 Bears “are who we thought they were” — a solid defense featuring the occasional star alongside an almost completely uninteresting offense. They’re just kind of there — the Bear way. 

Until you realize that this Bears offense is historically uninteresting. 

Through his first three starts, QB Justin Fields threw the ball just 45 times, which made the 2022 Chicago Bears the most pass-light team of the last 40 NFL seasons through three games, by a full ten attempts. 

Without adjusting for the staggering evolution of the game throughout the last 40 seasons, the Bears offense is really, really weird. When you do consider the modern offensive ideology in which the 2022 Bears reside — one that is more pass-happy than ever before — what first-year offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and his staff are doing is almost inexplicable.

Almost. Because there is, of course, an explanation for this historical schematic deviance. Whatever it is (most likely a combination of several different factors), almost every reasonable answer boils down to a frightening reality for Chicago. Justin Fields has regressed.

It’s the unthinkable. Everything leading up to the 2022–23 season for the Bears was centered around Fields. He was the franchise — the one bright light a team fresh off a roster-wide deconstruction could pin their hopes onto. Let’s face it; Chicago was supposed to be bad before the season, they look just as much four games in. None of that was supposed to matter because Fields — after a rookie season which displayed elite potential — was supposed to grow. He was supposed to look calmer as the game slowed down. He was supposed to take less sacks. His raw ability as a passer down the field was supposed to translate more often on Sundays. He was supposed to look like the guy.

Instead, the 2021 Draft’s 11th overall pick has not only failed to grow, but looks to have taken multiple steps back. Evidently, by virtue of Fields still being 30 attempts behind Mac Jones for the fewest passes thrown by a starting QB through four games, Getsy and this rookie offensive staff do not trust him to execute this offense through the air.

Fields clearly isn’t passing the number test. Statistically, he’s been historically bad. But he was similarly disappointing on the stat sheet last season, and still maintained an optimistic outlook regarding his future. In 2021, despite flunking on the spreadsheets, Fields was passing the eye test. In 2022, he’s failing both.

He remains just as athletically capable as he was when he was drafted, or when he looked like the future of the franchise in a heroic performance on a Monday Night in Pittsburgh last season. All of that unique talent that so much of the previous excitement around him was built on is still there. Only now, even more so than his rookie year, he has seemingly no idea when or how to use it.

That is a trend perhaps best illustrated by another one of his statistical oddities: Fields ranks as high 38th in the league among all positions in rushing attempts through the first four weeks, only three rushes behind the poster child for high volume rushing QBs — Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. Despite carrying the ball at a notably high volume, very few of his rushes have come on designed runs — where a significantly larger portion of the rushing attempts for the two QBs in front of him (Lamar and Jalen Hurts) come from. That means that Fields is scrambling a lot, at a rate higher than almost any other QB in the league. What does that mean? The intended structure of the Bears’ passing game is not working.

That is as much an indictment on the sophomore signal-caller as it is anyone else. Whatever the reason, Fields isn’t seeing what he’s supposed to be seeing. His longest run of the season (and his career) came on a 29 yard scramble on a third down against Houston in Week 3. Despite his feet bailing him out, Fields clearly misses Equanimeous St. Brown breaking open on a corner route, in what looks like the play’s main read. St. Brown doesn’t have acres of open grass around him, but is certainly open enough for the throw to be executed the way Luke Getsy wants when he calls this play. St. Brown is “NFL open”, a difficult throw, of course, but one that Fields is not only capable of making but has made countless times throughout his career. When presented with a throw that he was drafted on his ability to consistently make, Fields doesn’t rip it. 

It has become a noticeable trend in 2022: Fields uncharacteristically missing opportunities down the field. Despite taking notable strides back towards his usual standard at MetLife Stadium in Week 4, Fields’ performance was again scattered with inconceivable mental lapses. His most glaring miss, on a long third down late in the second quarter, was once more saved by his legs — this time a twelve yard scramble to set up a new set of downs deep in Giants’ territory. Despite a positive outcome, Fields bails out of a perfect pocket as Darnell Mooney is streaking wide open down the seam for a certain touchdown. Though Mooney is likely not the first read on this play, or even the second, Fields is afforded more than enough time by his offensive line to work his way through the read and eventually progress to the wide open seam. Nevertheless, he drops his eyes almost immediately after hitting the top of his drop and eventually, by virtue of the drive stalling on the next set of downs, surrenders four points.

Those two mistakes are only the most glaring in what is becoming a frantically long line of quarterbacking mishaps throughout Fields’ sophomore season. It’s a label we have become too quick to slap on to young QBs when they don’t hit the ground running, but the 23 year old has consistently looked “lost” in the pocket through four starts. 

The Bears and their offensive coordinator clearly do not believe in their unit’s ability to execute a structured passing attack — to a quite literally historic extent. Of course, the receivers are subpar, so to the offensive line (though they’ve actually been much better than many give them credit for). Yes, it’s Luke Getsy’s first gig as the unquestioned leader of a professional offense. Yes, it’s only been four games. Whatever immediate optimism there was for this aerial offense was always rooted in hope rather than reason. This is a bad unit, like it was supposed to be.

When they become a historically bad unit is when serious questions start to be asked. Justin Fields was supposed to look like a good quarterback on a bad team, a potentially great passer held back by circumstance around him. Instead, he’s mostly looked a player so far out of depth that he has become the one dragging behind the rest. Most concerning, however, is that Fields’ current shortcomings as a pocket passer were not there the last time we saw him. His rookie season, expectedly ripe with “rookie mistakes” as he came to grips with contrasts of the professional and college game, was lifted up by his consistent ability to execute the “big boy throws” he is now refusing to attempt. He was wonderfully aggressive and forward-thinking, always desperate to utilize his outstanding athletic tools. The ceiling looked limitless.

In 2022, the tools still remain, the willingness to utilize them does not. Fields’ clearly doesn’t trust his own judgment on when to let it fly, and when to stretch his legs. He doesn’t trust what he sees, if he even knows what he’s looking at all. The ceiling remains sky-high, but the floor is falling out from under him. Whatever happened between January and now to cause this unthinkable regression is redundant, so to the oos and aas that his remaining potential invites. Right now, he isn’t good enough for the Bears’ staff to feel comfortable committing to an offensive ideology from this century.

That is the bottom line for the Bears and for Justin Fields: he needs to rediscover his floor before he can start striving for the ceiling.