Publications

Jan 27, 2026 • Annals of Internal Medicine • Jay J, Pino E, Georges M, Courtepatte A, Harris J, Gause EL, Abaya R, Rothman EF, Goldstick J.

Effects of a Hospital-Based Violence Intervention Program on Community Violence in Boston, Massachusetts: A Target Trial Emulation

Two to three years after discharge, a hospital-based program that supports victims of gun and knife violence can reduce the likelihood of reinjury or violent recidivism by 50 percent. → Learn More

Nov 14, 2025 • American Journal of Preventive Medicine Focus • Gause EL, McLone S, Myers D, Rick C, Rajan S, Glymour MM, Jay J.

Child Gun Injury Risk Spikes When Children Leave School for the Day

During the 2-6 pm afterschool period, the risk of child firearm injuries in New York City public schools was 45 percent higher on school days, compared to non-school days. → Learn More

Oct 24, 2025 • Injury Epidemiology • Gause EL, McLone S, Dalton C, Morrison C, Jay J.

Vehicle traffic as a determinant of community firearm violence

In Portland, census tracts with traffic volumes that were greater by 10,000 vehicle trips were associated with a 27% increased risk of firearm assault, pointing to traffic management as a potential avenue for community firearm violence prevention.

Oct 13, 2025 • Prevention Science • Joseph PL, Jay J.

Summer youth employment programs as a structural approach to prevent youth violence: An integrative review

Well-designed SYEPs align with key components of interventions that address disparities in youth violence: they have proven sustainable despite limited federal funding, target behavioral and sociocultural environmental domains across multiple levels of influence, and address racial and economic disparities.

May 1, 2025 • JAMA Pediatrics • Jay J, Joseph PL, Goldstick JE.

Age-specific trends in pediatric and adult firearm homicide after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic

Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, firearm homicide rates in the United States spiked disproportionately among children under 18 and adults over 30, shifting the peak age of victimization risk downward from age 21 to 19. → Learn More

Mar 24, 2025 • Injury Epidemiology • Shareef F, Gause EL, McLone S, Gebo E, Jay J.

Spatial de-concentration of fatal and nonfatal firearm violence in Boston, MA, 2007-2021

Spatial concentration of shootings in Boston declined from 62% in 2007 to 55% in 2021, suggesting that the importance of microplace “hot spots” may be waning and underscoring the need to monitor this trend over time to inform future violence prevention strategies.

May 21, 2024 • Journal of Urban Health • Gause EL, McLone SG, Cunningham M, Jay J.

Community-Academic Partnership to Assess the Role of Physical Disinvestment on Firearm Violence in Toledo, OH

A 1-unit increase in nearby physical disinvestment was associated with 1.68 times higher odds of shooting incidence in Toledo, OH, suggesting that built environment conditions are key drivers of local firearm violence and highlighting the value of community-academic partnerships to inform targeted prevention strategies.

2024 • American Journal of Epidemiology • Gause EL, Schumacher AE, Ellyson AM, Withers SD, Mayer JD, Rowhani-Rahbar A.

An introduction to bayesian spatial smoothing methods for disease mapping: modeling county firearm suicide mortality rates

Applying Bayesian spatial smoothing methods using the R-INLA package enabled precise, unsuppressed firearm suicide mortality rate estimates for US counties with 20 or fewer deaths, demonstrating how this accessible method can be a valuable asset for public health researchers, especially when examining rare outcomes or small geographic areas.

2022 • JAMA Network Open • Lyons VH, Gause EL, Spangler KR, Wellenius GA, Jay J.

Analysis of Daily Ambient Temperature and Firearm Violence in 100 US Cities

Across 100 US cities, nearly 7% of firearm shootings were attributable to above-median daily temperatures, emphasizing the importance of integrating heat-mitigation and climate-adaptation measures into urban violence prevention efforts. → Learn More

2022 • Preventive Medicine • Jay J, Kondo MC, Lyons VH, Gause EL, South EC.

Neighborhood segregation, tree cover and firearm violence in 6 U.S. cities, 2015-2020

Across six US cities, a one standard deviation increase in urban tree cover was associated with a 9% reduction in shootings, demonstrating that expanding tree canopy can help mitigate racial and economic disparities in firearm violence, especially within historically segregated neighborhoods.