{"id":37852,"date":"2023-04-15T11:21:25","date_gmt":"2023-04-15T15:21:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/?p=37852"},"modified":"2023-04-15T11:21:25","modified_gmt":"2023-04-15T15:21:25","slug":"the-b-gap-the-falcons-are-getting-there-for-better-or-worse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/2023\/04\/15\/the-b-gap-the-falcons-are-getting-there-for-better-or-worse\/","title":{"rendered":"The B-Gap: The Falcons are getting there; for better or worse"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Sam Robb O\u2019Hagan<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

The most important play of the Atlanta Falcons\u2019 2022 season is hiding.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder\u2019s first pass of the fourth quarter against the Arizona Cardinals on New Years\u2019 Day is in the waste basket of NFL history. But it might have been the most impressive throw made by a Falcons quarterback all season.<\/span><\/p>\n

Atlanta is running a customary shot play down the near sideline. Ridder recognizes the Cardinals\u2019 coverage rotation to \u201cmiddle field closed\u201d at the snap and grants himself the green light. He senses pressure coming up the gut and barreling around the edge in front of him. No panic.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ridder calmly backpedals to drift away from the immediate danger. A split-second throwing window is created, and he takes the leap, the sandwich with two pass-rushers that inevitably follows notwithstanding. 55 air yards later, Damiere Byrd\u2019s arms are extended, his mitts inviting what is a perfectly thrown ball into tight coverage. But for a perfectly timed hand from Jace Whittaker, Ridder has <\/span>just made the defining throw<\/span><\/a> of his brief rookie season cameo.<\/span><\/p>\n

It was an incomplete pass, in an entirely inconsequential game, in an entirely lost season. And it tells the entire story of the present day Atlanta Falcons.<\/span><\/p>\n

Atlanta is close. Really, really close. <\/span>That <\/span><\/i>close.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Falcons finished Ridders\u2019 first season 7-10, last in the AFC South and without a playoff berth for the fifth straight season. But they made significant progress in foundational areas throughout all 17 games, and in the final four meaningless ones, began to build even further with their second-round passer that now figures to be the team\u2019s starter going forward.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Falcons\u2019 offense was especially promising. It was 13th in DVOA, a metric that measures a unit\u2019s efficiency compared to a league average, and when they ran the ball, they generated the fourth highest expected points added per rush, according to rbsdm.com. The Falcons ran the ball more than anyone else, so that\u2019s a lot of expected points! And despite Head Coach Arthur Smith electing to run the ball at an extraordinarily high rate, and Marcus Mariota being the quarterback for 14 games, the Falcons\u2019 passing offense was encouraging, too.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Atlanta\u2019s expected points added per dropback was just a hair below zero, again good enough for 20th in the league. Not great, but pretty close to being good <\/span>enough<\/span><\/i>, given how much the Falcons run the ball and how good they are at doing it. Above all else, the passing attack has a clear identity going into 2023.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For one, they\u2019re really, really big. Drake London is 6-foot-4, 213 pounds. New signing Mack Hollins is 6-foot-4, 221 pounds. Kyle Pitts is 6-foot-6, 224 pounds.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And that makes sense! With the backfield express Smith is clearly intent on building, the Falcons need as much size on the field as possible. Smith\u2019s run-heavy play-action offense requires receivers with the physical tools to effectively block in the run game. Size on the perimeter comes at a price, of course \u2014 London, Hollins, and Pitts aren\u2019t going to be running complex short and intermediate routes anytime soon \u2014 but that works with the pillars of a play-action passing offense.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Falcons offense isn\u2019t all the way there yet, but they know what \u201cthere\u201d actually is. That alone is a step in the right direction that plenty of rebuilding teams still haven\u2019t taken. The ducks are in a row, now it\u2019s just a matter of getting them to the finish line.<\/span><\/p>\n

That is where the spotlight returns to Ridder.<\/span><\/p>\n

Because Atlanta would be naive to think that it will be anything else but quality quarterback play to push them over the edge. And barring a last-minute change of heart on draft night, <\/span>or on Lamar Jackson<\/span><\/a>, Ridder will be the Falcons\u2019 quarterback. He is their guy. He will need to be the one that moves the needle.<\/span><\/p>\n

There is plenty of room for immediate optimism with Ridder. Many considered him the most complete quarterback in the 2022 class. He\u2019d wound up being the second taken, but the brightest parts of his game in college are still glowing after four starts in the NFL.<\/span><\/p>\n

With the required caveat that it\u2019s almost impossible to be comfortable as a rookie quarterback, in his first four professional games, Ridder looked\u2026pretty comfortable. He displayed the consistent will to make pre-snap decisions and trust them, like on his oh-so-close deep bomb to Byrd against Arizona. He was extremely creative inside the pocket, too, inventing ways to open up throwing windows and avoid pressure with subtle movements up and down, back and forth (again on display on the throw to Byrd). Those are impressive and increasingly rare qualities in a rookie quarterback, and his ability to do both requires the kind of natural understanding of the sport that will help him develop in other areas.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ridder still has a ways to go, and with each of his outstanding qualities comes a question. His willingness to commit to a pre-snap read is great, but only if his pre-snap read is right. When it isn\u2019t right, how well can Ridder use his post-snap decision making to make up for it? His pocket presence is wise beyond his years, but how creative can Ridder be outside of the pocket, in an NFL that is increasingly being played out of structure? Just how athletic is he in space, and how is his accuracy and velocity affected when throwing on the move?<\/span><\/p>\n

The answers to those questions will make or break Ridder\u2019s trajectory as a quality professional quarterback. There\u2019s a fair amount of evidence suggesting that Ridder can be the player the Falcons need him to be, but those are concepts without proof. He still has to go out and do it. And under the immense pressure, no less, that comes with Atlanta\u2019s immediate withdrawal from the race for a proven, 26-year-old former MVP who would\u2019ve replaced him.<\/span><\/p>\n

That\u2019s the conundrum with Ridder, and really, the conundrum with the Falcons. They are on the right track. There\u2019s a lot to like. But we just don\u2019t know. They still have to go out and do it.<\/span><\/p>\n

The consequences if Ridder can\u2019t do it could be devastating. The Falcons are putting a lot of eggs into their current basket, handing out big money extensions to Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary to keep the offensive line intact and signing Jessie Bates and David Onyemata to lucrative contracts in the hopes of finally fielding an acceptable defense. In total, $236 million has been committed to those four players.<\/span><\/p>\n

That\u2019s a gamble. If Ridder fails, then $236 million fails, too. What\u2019s worse, the adding of\u00a0 $236 million to a team that was already fairly respectable might make them too good to replace Ridder if he can\u2019t establish himself. Will the Falcons be picking as high as seventh again in the foreseeable future (remember, the NFC South is really, really bad)? Because a quarterback as good as Jackson, of whom Atlanta <\/span>was almost offensively swift in their brushing aside<\/span><\/a>, isn\u2019t going to be available again.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In passing on Jackson, and each of the four first-round quarterbacks in this year\u2019s draft, in electing not to take those swings, the Falcons are taking the biggest swing of all \u2014 betting that their four-game-old, second-round pick will turn out good enough to give them a decent crack at a Super Bowl.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, the Falcons are getting there. But, in the one way that they are really close, in another way they are still so far.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Sam Robb O\u2019Hagan The most important play of the Atlanta Falcons\u2019 2022 season is hiding.\u00a0 Rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder\u2019s first pass of the fourth quarter against the Arizona Cardinals on New Years\u2019 Day is in the waste basket of NFL history. But it might have been the most impressive throw made by a Falcons […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21477,"featured_media":37856,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1024,1050,1035,19],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37852"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21477"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37852"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37852\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37855,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37852\/revisions\/37855"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37856"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37852"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37852"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37852"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}