{"id":37703,"date":"2023-04-08T12:23:48","date_gmt":"2023-04-08T16:23:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/?p=37703"},"modified":"2023-04-08T12:23:48","modified_gmt":"2023-04-08T16:23:48","slug":"the-b-gap-how-high-is-too-high-to-select-bijan-robinson","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/2023\/04\/08\/the-b-gap-how-high-is-too-high-to-select-bijan-robinson\/","title":{"rendered":"The B-Gap: How high is too high to select Bijan Robinson?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Sam Robb O\u2019Hagan<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Bijan Robinson is five years too late.<\/span><\/p>\n

Debates rage on the former Texas running back and his looming fate at April\u2019s draft. Some say the top half of the first round. Some say the 20s. Some say he should fall out of the first round entirely. But two things are clear. The first? Robinson is almost universally regarded, in a vacuum, as one of the 10 best players in the 2023 NFL Draft. <\/span><\/p>\n

The second? <\/span>Robinson won\u2019t be one of the first 10 players off the board. <\/span><\/p>\n

Five years ago, he probably would\u2019ve been.<\/span><\/p>\n

The last running back to enter the NFL with a reputation as certain as Robinson\u2019s was Saquon Barkley in 2018, whose ability was so mouth-watering that the New York Giants couldn\u2019t stop themselves before making him the second overall pick. Robinson is the first running back since to be talked about in the same breath; ESPN even took the liberty of <\/span>making Barkley their draft comparison for Robinson<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Barkley\u2019s selection at second overall raised eyebrows, but not directed at Barkley himself, rather the opportunity cost for the Giants that came with passing on four first-round quarterbacks. Barkley being the pick was relatively immune from criticism \u2014 his selection in the top 10 was expected, and in the top two certainly plausible. After all, Barkley was the 28th running back selected with a top five pick since 1980, which included one in each of the two drafts before him.<\/span><\/p>\n

Five drafts later, Robinson\u2019s selection in the top 10 is almost unthinkable. No running back has been drafted in the first 20 picks in the last four drafts, and only four have been taken in the first-round. Given that terms like \u201cgenerational\u201d and \u201cbest I\u2019ve ever seen\u201d make frequent appearances in his write-ups, if Robinson can\u2019t sneak into the top 10, it\u2019s hard to imagine that any future running back can.<\/span><\/p>\n

But why the sudden running back desert at the top of the draft? Barkley certainly didn\u2019t bust \u2014 he was immediately one of the five best runners in the league as a rookie, and he returned from two injury-marred seasons to become the most important offensive player on the Giants\u2019 run to the Divisional Round of the 2022 postseason.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Well, it certainly doesn\u2019t help the Barkley pick\u2019s case that the Cleveland Browns\u2019 Nick Chubb, taken 33 picks later, has gained over 1,200 more all-purpose yards than Barkley in his first five seasons. And Chubb isn\u2019t the only Day 1 outcast to out-gain Barkley. Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara, taken in the second and third-rounds in 2017, respectively, both out-gained Barkley through their first five seasons. Jonathan Taylor, taken in the second round in 2020, is on pace to shatter Barkley\u2019s 6,069 career scrimmage yards by his fifth season.<\/span><\/p>\n

Per the <\/span>Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart<\/span><\/a>, the difference in value between the second pick and the 35th pick, where Chubb was selected, is 1,451 points. That\u2019s 1,451 points worth of draft value sacrificed for over 1,200 less yards of production. The difference between No.2 and Kamara\u2019s No. 67? 1,780 points.<\/span><\/p>\n

The problem with the Giants\u2019 Barkley pick wasn\u2019t Barkley. The problem was that many of the players taken well below him were just as good, and some were even better.<\/span><\/p>\n

The second round has become the watering hole for teams looking for productive rushers. With Cook and Kamara paving the way, Taylor, Miles Sanders, Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker have followed as ultra-productive second-round backs. There\u2019s even evidence that the second round may be too rich for running backs \u2014 Aaron Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard have all taken the lead role in some of the league\u2019s most relied upon backfields, and all three were fourth-round picks.<\/span><\/p>\n

Accordingly, the first-round running back market has almost completely dried up. Many of those second-round picks, most notably Taylor, even entered the draft as consensus first-round talents and were pushed into Day 2. Such is the reluctance around most of the league to pull the running back trigger early. It\u2019s why last year\u2019s draft, despite Hall and Walker both receiving first-round buzz, became the third draft of the 21st century to finish without a first-round running back.<\/span><\/p>\n

The trend will hold in April. Alabama\u2019s Jahmyr Gibbs and Texas A&M\u2019s Davon Achane, both possessing the type of tantalizing speed and explosiveness that would\u2019ve made them first-round locks just a decade ago, will now certainly make it to the second night in 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

But Robinson is, of course, a different story. Ask any evaluator and they\u2019ll tell you he\u2019s a cut above all of the recent Day 2 picks before him. He is, in a sense, too good to fall victim to the NFL\u2019s modern running back philosophy. The second round is probably too low. But how high is too high?<\/span><\/p>\n

The middle of the first-round becomes the obvious answer. It\u2019s clear that Robinson is held in higher regard than any of the four first-round running backs since Barkley, the highest of which (Josh Jacobs and Najee Harris) were drafted with the 24th pick. And it\u2019s even clearer that Robinson isn\u2019t in the top 10 conversation. So, the teens become the logical answer.<\/span><\/p>\n

But it isn\u2019t that simple. A peruse of the teams currently slotted between picks 11 and 19 reveals few obvious suitors. If Robinson is truly at Barkley\u2019s level, he\u2019d instantly become the leading member of all nine of those backfields, save for (maybe) the Tennessee Titans, who will trot out Derrick Henry next season. Robinson would have a role on all eight of the remaining teams, but it\u2019s hard to find one that truly <\/span>needs <\/span><\/i>him.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Jets and Green Bay Packers already have significant investments in their backfields. The Houston Texans and New England Patriots don\u2019t, but both Dameon Pierce and Stevenson were significant producers last season. Drafting Robinson with such a valuable pick to replace the sufficient runners they already have, at the expense of addressing the myriad of other needs on each roster, would be counterproductive.<\/span><\/p>\n

That leaves the Washington Commanders and the Detroit Lions. The Commanders have gotten acceptable production from both Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson, but the team will know Robinson is in a different stratosphere. But given they\u2019re coming off a last-place division finish, with still a long ways to go, can Washington really swallow the opportunity cost that comes with drafting a running back so high?<\/span><\/p>\n

The Lions make the most sense. Boosted by an impressive series of free agency additions, Detroit figures to roster one of the league\u2019s most complete teams come the new season. Beyond quarterback, which can\u2019t be addressed with their 19th pick anyway, the Lions don\u2019t have a lot of urgent holes. They have earned the luxury to take Robinson.<\/span><\/p>\n

But would they? They just gave David Montgomery a three-year, $18 million contract with over $11 million guaranteed to join D\u2019Andre Swift, a former second-round pick himself, in their backfield. Montgomery replaces Jamaal Williams, whom the Lions paid just $6 million over two seasons to rush for 1,600 yards and 20 touchdowns. The Lions know, perhaps more than most, the surplus value that is present on the running back market. Drafting Robinson at 19 would, in practice, directly ignore everything they\u2019ve just learned.<\/span><\/p>\n

Therein lies the conundrum with Robinson: He\u2019s too good to fall out of the first-round; he\u2019s too good to fall out of the teens. But even when you do find what looks like the perfect fit, a team stable enough to draft him so high without directly sacrificing other areas of the roster, it\u2019s difficult to ignore what Barkley and Chubb and many more have taught us.<\/span><\/p>\n

If you need a running back, you can wait. There\u2019s no need to rush.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Sam Robb O\u2019Hagan Bijan Robinson is five years too late. Debates rage on the former Texas running back and his looming fate at April\u2019s draft. Some say the top half of the first round. Some say the 20s. Some say he should fall out of the first round entirely. But two things are clear. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21477,"featured_media":37705,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1024,1050,1035,19],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37703"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21477"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37703"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37703\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37707,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37703\/revisions\/37707"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37705"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37703"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37703"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37703"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}