{"id":37589,"date":"2023-03-31T19:01:33","date_gmt":"2023-03-31T23:01:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/?p=37589"},"modified":"2023-03-31T19:01:33","modified_gmt":"2023-03-31T23:01:33","slug":"the-b-gap-justin-fields-cj-stroud-and-the-backwards-debate-around-floors-and-ceilings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/2023\/03\/31\/the-b-gap-justin-fields-cj-stroud-and-the-backwards-debate-around-floors-and-ceilings\/","title":{"rendered":"The B-Gap: Justin Fields, CJ Stroud and the backwards debate around floors and ceilings"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Sam Robb O\u2019Hagan<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Ask any evaluator before the 2021 NFL Draft, and the consensus surrounding soon-to-be Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields was clear.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fields was a polarizing prospect \u2014 many argued he should\u2019ve been the second overall pick, many argued he should\u2019ve been the last of the five quarterbacks eventually selected in the first round. Warm or cold, every evaluation of Fields subscribed to one consistent theme: the floor was low, but the ceiling was unimaginably high.<\/span><\/p>\n

It was a simple calculus. Fields\u2019 dazzling athleticism gave him limitless potential, but his under-refined technical chops put him at risk of being an immediate flame-out. He\u2019d need to keep his head above water before he reached for the stars, and without a sound infrastructure around him — a life jacket, if you will — he\u2019d sink before he got a chance to swim.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cHe should quickly become a top-tier NFL starter,\u201d <\/span>read ESPN\u2019s final draft profile on Fields<\/span><\/a>. But only \u201cif placed in the right system and situation.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Fields fell victim to the backwards philosophy that has infected quarterback evaluations throughout the modern draft era \u2014 that tantalizing athletic traits only contribute to a passer\u2019s future potential, and technical refinement only to their present capability.<\/span><\/p>\n

Take Fields\u2019 replacement in Columbus, now the betting favorite to become the first overall pick this April. CJ Stroud lives on the opposite pole \u2014 a wonderfully polished passer with precise accuracy and sound process in all required areas. Stroud\u2019s superpower is the technical refinement that Fields lacked, and in the NFL\u2019s eyes, that makes him a safe bet, a \u201chigh floor\u201d prospect that, if nothing else, won\u2019t fail in the pros.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If Vegas is right, Stroud\u2019s low risk-factor is about to make him worth <\/span>two-first round picks, two-second round picks and DJ Moore.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

But there are questions with Stroud. His mobility, and even his willingness to use it, was absent all over his Ohio State film, save for a heroic cameo in the National Semifinal against Georgia. Stroud isn\u2019t a remarkable athlete \u2014 <\/span>Next Gen Stats gives him an Athleticism Score of 73<\/span><\/a> after the combine, a cumulative grade of his performance in measurable drills. His score isn\u2019t even among the 10 best in this year\u2019s class at the position.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

These questions regarding Stroud\u2019s athleticism are being asked, but they aren\u2019t being aimed at the vulnerable aspect of his projection to the NFL. Stroud\u2019s ceiling is under serious scrutiny, but his floor \u2014 the perceived chance that Stroud outright fails at the next level \u2014 is still almost completely untouched.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Stroud remains almost universally viewed as a lock to be at least a solid starter. But in the last five drafts, the only first-round quarterback with an Athleticism Score below his 73 that remains the undisputed starter for the team that drafted him is Joe Burrow. The four others that failed \u2014 Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and Dwayne Haskins \u2014 all aligned with Stroud as a prospect, and all collapsed under the same stresses that Stroud will inevitably face.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen and Haskins were all drafted into offenses anywhere between talent-deficient and dysfunctional. All four lacked the athleticism to make up for it \u2014 to figure it out when things fell apart around them, when the offensive line in front of them couldn\u2019t hold up long enough or the receivers down field couldn\u2019t get open quick enough. All four were true pocket passers like Stroud, a valuable and important skill set, certainly, but one that really, really needs a functional <\/span>pocket<\/span> \u2014 a functional structure \u2014 <\/span><\/i>to stay above water. But it was Fields, the athletic marvel with an Athleticism Score of 99 out of 100, that still had to carry the caveat that his success hinged on \u201cthe right system and situation\u201d into a draft that eventually saw him drop out of the top ten picks.<\/span><\/p>\n

Two seasons after he was drafted, through their foregoing of the opportunity to replace him with No.1 overall pick in the upcoming 2023 draft, the Bears have declared Fields\u2019 head above water.<\/span><\/p>\n

In Fields\u2019 first season, the Bears threw him into the deepest of deep ends, trotting him out in an offense orchestrated by an outcast head coach along with one of the league\u2019s worst offensive lines and a receiving corps led by a completely disinterested former star. In Year 2, the Bears threw him right back in. Luke Getsy\u2019s offense gave Fields more of a chance than Matt Nagy\u2019s, sure, but the offensive line was still leaky and the receiving core, once middling with no clear direction, was now barely a professional unit.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

1,143 rushing yards and 25 total touchdowns later, Fields is Chicago\u2019s guy. So much for needing the right situation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fields has established himself as an NFL starter, like the line of unathletic yet somehow risk-averse prospects that preceded him couldn\u2019t. And he did it on the back of his jaw-dropping ability out of structure, the same plays that were only supposed to contribute to his mouth-watering ceiling without touching his floor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Fields is a case study into what really makes young quarterbacks stick in the NFL. But he\u2019s also a case study into what really makes them ascend into stardom. It doesn\u2019t feel like a coincidence, for instance, that Fields hasn\u2019t yet reached his star-studded ceiling, just the same as he hasn\u2019t fully developed the technical polish that eluded him throughout the draft process.<\/span><\/p>\n

About the only quality that Fields and Stroud share as prospects is the logo on their Pro Day helmets, yet both have an equal hand in the backwards philosophy that is relentlessly applied to their position. Stroud is the perceived \u201chigh-floor\u201d prospect, clearly already on his way to mastering the coachable intricacies of the position. Fields was the apparent \u201chigh-ceiling\u201d prospect, teeming with physical gifts that can\u2019t be taught.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet a quick glance at the recent history of prospects like Stroud, and the ongoing success of Fields, tells us that the superpowers of both former Buckeyes are found in their assumed weaknesses. Stroud doesn\u2019t have the uncoachable natural talent that has kept Fields afloat. But he does have the black belt in quarterbacking technique that still prohibits his collegiate predecessor from assuming his own vaunted potential.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stroud isn\u2019t a \u201clow-risk\u201d prospect. He might immediately sink in the NFL. Recent history tells us it\u2019s even likely he will. And that\u2019s okay \u2014 NFL teams have been willingly taking swings at the quarterback plate for the last century.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

So Stroud is risky. But that isn\u2019t a fatal flaw; so long as the team that drafts him realizes they aren\u2019t drafting a guarantee.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Sam Robb O\u2019Hagan Ask any evaluator before the 2021 NFL Draft, and the consensus surrounding soon-to-be Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields was clear. Fields was a polarizing prospect \u2014 many argued he should\u2019ve been the second overall pick, many argued he should\u2019ve been the last of the five quarterbacks eventually selected in the first […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21477,"featured_media":37591,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1024,1050,1035,19],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37589"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21477"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37589"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37589\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37593,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37589\/revisions\/37593"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37591"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/wtbu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}