{"id":5481,"date":"2023-11-07T09:53:11","date_gmt":"2023-11-07T14:53:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/urban\/?page_id=5481"},"modified":"2025-12-10T11:33:51","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T16:33:51","slug":"schneider","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/urban\/schneider\/","title":{"rendered":"Simulating Mid-century Climate Impacts on New York City\u2019s Energy Demands"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\t<ul class=\"profile-listing profile-format-advanced\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n<li class=\"profile-item profile-item-advanced has-title post-3120 profile type-profile status-publish hentry\">\n\t<a href=\"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/urban\/profile\/nicolas-schneider\/\" class=\"profile-link profile-link-advanced\">\n\t\t<figure class=\"profile-photo profile-photo-advanced\">\n\t\t\t<img width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"\/urban\/files\/2021\/08\/NSchneider-1-150x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail\" alt=\"Nicolas Schneider headshot\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/urban\/files\/2021\/08\/NSchneider-1-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/urban\/files\/2021\/08\/NSchneider-1-100x100.jpg 100w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/>\t\t<\/figure>\n\n\t\t<h6 class=\"profile-name profile-name-advanced\">Nicolas Schneider<\/h6>\n\t\t<p class=\"profile-title profile-title-advanced\">Senior Research Engineer &#8211; Empirical Macroeconomist<\/p>\t<\/a>\n\n\t\n<\/li>\n\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\n<p><strong>Project Partner:<\/strong> New York City Mayor\u2019s Office of Climate and Environmental Justice<\/p>\n<p><strong>Project Summary:<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/climate.cityofnewyork.us\/\"> Simulating mid-century climate impacts on New York City\u2019s energy demands<\/a>, Summer 2023<\/p>\n<p>In New York as in many cities, climate change is expected to shift the distribution of extreme heat events by making them more frequent and intense in the long run; thus, increasing electricity demand to cool spaces in the summer. Simultaneously, global warming will moderate cold-season low-temperature extremes, reducing the demand for space heating during the winter. Climatically driven energy costs\/savings are likely to accrue more to some urban sectors and boroughs than others, thus asymmetrically increasing New Yorkers\u2019 vulnerabilities.<\/p>\n<p>Nicolas partnered with the New York City Mayor\u2019s Office of Climate and Environmental Justice to project these changes on the city\u2019s energy system circa-2050. He integrated high-frequency gridded climate data with building-level electricity and gas billing information from more than 30,000 individual units with gross square surface &gt; 25,000 ft<sup>2<\/sup> and accounted for a wide gradient of buildings\u2019 density and uses, climate shift and electrification scenarios.<\/p>\n<p>Nicolas provided a gridded dataset summing building-level predicted energy consumption impacts decomposed by sector (residents versus non-residents), space (boroughs and community districts), season (main cooling\/heating vs. intermediate seasons) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations to the Mayor\u2019s Office. His work contributes to more clearly identifying the unequal distribution of future energy demand impacts along social and economic lines, and <em>in fine<\/em>, the climate adaptation gap in urban areas.<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>Notes:<\/u><\/strong> Mid-century climatically driven changes in temperature exposure are imputed from IM3-HyperFACETS meteorological fields downscaling CMIP6 model outputs in time (hours) and space (12km) across GCMs. For each RCP (8.5 here), GCMs are distributed between \u2018Cooler\u2019 and \u2018Hotter\u2019 subsets based on their Transient Climate Response (TCR) and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) likelihoods &#8212; inside \u2018likely\u2019 ranges (1.4-2.2\u25e6C, 66% likelihood, and 2.5-4\u00b0C, 90% likelihood, respectively), versus outside (respectively). \u2018CDD\u2019: monthly sum of Cooling Degree Day counts (&gt; 18\u00b0C). \u2018HDD\u2019: monthly sum of Heating Degree Day counts (&lt; 18\u00b0C). \u2018Agg.\u2019: sum of impacts across climate components by fuel. \u2018Tot.\u2019: Energy: sum of impacts across both climate components and fuel.<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>Figure 1:<\/u><\/strong> Mid-century projected energy demand per ft<sup>2<\/sup> impacts (%) by climate component and fuel, 2041-2060, multi-model medians of \u2018vigorous\u2019 warming scenarios [RCP85], \u2019cooler\u2019 [orange, left-hand side box] versus \u2019hotter\u2019 [red, right-hand side box] subsets of Global Climate Models (GCMs).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"\/urban\/files\/2025\/12\/Figure-1-636x551.png\" alt=\"Mid-century projected energy demand per square foot\" width=\"636\" height=\"551\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-7169 size-medium\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/urban\/files\/2025\/12\/Figure-1-636x551.png 636w, https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/urban\/files\/2025\/12\/Figure-1-768x665.png 768w, https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/urban\/files\/2025\/12\/Figure-1-693x600.png 693w, https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/urban\/files\/2025\/12\/Figure-1.png 1000w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 636px) 100vw, 636px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Project Partner: New York City Mayor\u2019s Office of Climate and Environmental Justice Project Summary: Simulating mid-century climate impacts on New York City\u2019s energy demands, Summer 2023 In New York as in many cities, climate change is expected to shift the distribution of extreme heat events by making them more frequent and intense in the long [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22861,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":22,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/urban\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/5481"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/urban\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/urban\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/urban\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22861"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/urban\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5481"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/urban\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/5481\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7170,"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/urban\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/5481\/revisions\/7170"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.bu.edu\/urban\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5481"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}