Will the Fed’s Decisions in Coming Months Impact the 2024 Election?

Tensions and variability regarding the 2024 presidential election this coming November continue to rise, with political uncertainty being exacerbated by the unpredictable economic landscape. According to NPR, Republican voters blame Democratic President Biden for a weak economy, inflation, an increased cost of living, and a fiercely competitive job market. As stated by PBS, a poll showed that 30% of Americans, particularly white men, Republicans, and dependents will be voting in November with inflation as their top priority. 

While inflation encompasses countless factors beyond the actions of monetary policy, its criticisms aimed at President Biden are largely misdirected, as maintaining a stable price level and full employment via the Fed Funds rate and minimum reserve requirements is the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, a politically independent government agency. 

As a response to easing inflationary pressures and an optimistic economic outlook post-2022-2023 Fed rate hikes, Fed chairman Gerome Powell indicated in an interview that the Fed hopes to cut interest rates from the current rate of 5.25%-5.50% 3 times this year, starting in May. If the Fed cuts rates too soon, inflation will rise, however, if rates are cut too late, unemployment will rise, revealing the dilemma that the central bank is facing. According to Reuters, “The Fed has moved rates in 11 of the 12 presidential election years since 1972. The moves have been in both directions, and show no connection with whether the party in power switched or stayed the same.” 

Therefore, the Fed will not change its behavior this year as a result of the election, though many Americans may change their voting behavior based on inflation as a result of the Fed’s actions. The interplay of these dynamics is contradictory and a result of widespread political illiteracy and misinformation. In an article from the Wall Street Journal titled, “Powell Navigates ‘Toxic’ Politics of Rate Cuts,” Nick Tamaraos explains that allies of former President, and current Republican front-running nominee, Donald Trump argue that the Federal Reserve signals upcoming rate cuts as a means to support President Biden’s candidacy in the upcoming election, which is objectively false. 

It is extremely concerning and discouraging that misinformation regarding the central bank’s priorities is introducing political interference and bias into the election. In a political commentary piece, scientist Trish Zornio explains that using political illiteracy as a tool to win over voters has been a recent tool of the Republican party, in which “Facts have become partisan,” as we can currently see with the insinuation of the Fed as a democratic organization.