Declining South Korea: What implies the low fertility rate of South Korea?
The record-low fertility rate in South Korea reflects the pessimistic future of the nation. The fertility rate below 1 shows what the country may face in the future and present. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), South Korea ranked the lowest in fertility rates among the OECD nations since 2013. From 2013 when it started to place lowest in fertility rate to 2015, there was a slight increase in the rate. However, the rate started to fall again and entered less than one in 2018. Finally, in 2021, South Korea showed a fertility rate of 0.81, which indicates the only nation among the OECD that has a lower than 1 fertility rate.
Among the burdens, some major factors influence the fertility rate:
First, as women’s wages and opportunities increased more than it was before, women started to think about the opportunity cost of having babies. According to the Korea Economic Institute of America, due to the difficulty raised by the importance of balancing job and household, women started to consider “choose between leaving their jobs to raise children or forgoing children.” Along with the old organizational culture that tacitly asked women to not bore a baby if they wanted to be promoted with achievements, though it’s now less than before, the higher payment and opportunities made women prone to choose to remain in the job sector instead of bearing babies and have a pause in achievement break. The rise of the work-life balance trend also quickened the culture of not having a baby to a new generation.
Second, the cost of living kept increasing. Seoul, the most populated city in Korea, ranked higher in consumer prices compared to other Asian countries, according to The Chosun Ilbo. In addition, the grocery prices are similar to major US cities, such as New York, San Francisco, and Boston, which are all ranked above 20th among 557 cities globally. The more members are in the family, the more cost will be needed to be spent. The nursery products for babies – diapers, baby formulas, clothes – also showed a price increase. The more babies are born, the more burden that parents will undertake.
Third, the education cost burden increased. This factor continues from the second part. Korea has a competitive atmosphere in education. Some parents start making their children take high school level education in elementary school so that they are ahead compared to other students. Parents’ willingness for their children to succeed in a competitive education system leads them to have excessive expenditure on education. According to Joongang Ilbo, South Korea’s private educational spending will increase by about 10.8 per cent in 2022. The top 20-percent income group who has children in junior high or high school will spend about $871 per month on average. This doesn’t include the school tuition, supplies, and technologies. Also, due to the distrust of the school system and heavy reliance on private education after school, educational expenditure is likely to increase.
The low fertility rate will affect not only the current economy but also the future economy and society of South Korea. First, the number of elderly will increase, meaning an increased burden on the pension and the health care system. According to the research paper from Health Affairs, the previous reform plans didn’t give much improvement in both financial status and coverage to Koreans. Second, due to the increase in saturation in the capital city Seoul, there is a high possibility of city extinction. In addition, 23 districts of Seoul, the capital of Korea, are likely to be extinct by 2047. David Coleman, an Oxford University professor emeritus, said South Korea is “a country that may cease to exist by 2750.” School closings and the creation of ghost towns are inevitable. Third, the military size will decrease. Until 2027, the active soldiers will be maintained at around 500,000, but this shows a sharp decline compared to 618,000 in 2018. As Korea is divided into North and South with high military tension, the size reduction has a big impact on national stability and may impact foreign citizens’ choice to migrate to Korea.
The government is endeavoring to recover the fertility rate. South Korean President Yoon Seok Yeol’s participation in the meeting of the Presidential Committee on an Aging Society and Population Policy since 2015 shows how the birth rate is serious in South Korea. It was the first time that the president attended the committee meeting. President Yoon will give 700,000 South Korean Won ($540) a month to households that have a child less than a year old. The local cities in South Korea also implemented policies, such as subsidies, and support of fertility treatment, according to The Guardian. Though giving money can give a sense to relieve the financial burden, some experts are worried that giving money won’t correct the current situation in the long run.
The policies should target the current generation – N-po generation – referring to young generations giving up “n” things, such as marriage, friends, and house. Due to economic burdens, young generations are giving up several things at the most prestigious moment in their life. Though most of the policies in the past from the governments showed unsuccessful outcomes, the legislature and executive government should cooperate with experts so that authorities can implement effective policies that can stop the concern of low fertility rate.
Written by MinSeok Michael Cho